Prediction of Hayato Matsuoka vs Bernard Tomic at Sydney Challenger 11-18-25

• How do they perform on second serves? Recently, Bernard Tomic has a slight edge with 47.58% points won on second serve, compared to Hayato Matsuoka's 43.39%.
• When looking at return stats, Matsuoka outperforms Tomic slightly in both second serve returns (45.17% to 44.99%) and first serve returns (30.53% to 23.97%).
• Which player handles pressure better? Tomic has the advantage, saving 56.83% of breakpoints faced, while Matsuoka saves 53.45%.
• Over the past year, Matsuoka has a marginally better match win percentage (58.67%) compared to Tomic's 56.58%.
• Both players perform best on hard courts, with each having a career win percentage of 58% on this surface.
• In terms of competition level, Matsuoka has mainly competed in $10K ITF events, winning 61.11% of matches. Contrast this with Tomic, who frequently competes in higher-tier Challenger/ITF events, maintaining a 57.41% win rate.
• Why might Tomic have a tougher challenge? He's faced stronger opponents in the past year, with an average rank of 279.3 compared to Matsuoka's 438.96.
• When it comes to deciding sets, Tomic shows more resilience, winning 59% of them, while Matsuoka has won only 44%.
• Matsuoka has been more successful in converting break points with a conversion rate of 34.11%, as opposed to Tomic’s 25.73%.

Editorial Prediction (November 17, 2025, UTC):

In this head-to-head matchup, both Hayato Matsuoka and Bernard Tomic display unique strengths that could influence the outcome. Matsuoka has shown better return capabilities, excelling slightly in converting break points and handling first serve returns.

However, Bernard Tomic has demonstrated superior performance under pressure, reflected in his higher breakpoint save rate and his success in deciding sets. His experience against higher-ranked opponents and slight edge in second serve effectiveness also suggest a competitive advantage.

Factoring in the level of play and experience, Bernard Tomic appears slightly favored to secure a victory in this upcoming match, given his overall superior coping under pressure and decisive set performances.